Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 173.551459 211.069674 257.841527 321.605607 408.173763 5.245625e+02 6.982977e+02
2025-03-02 125.882727 166.596641 223.803203 313.629733 458.512420 6.983287e+02 1.165195e+03
2025-03-09 100.233836 140.046415 200.584503 305.511948 498.053946 8.756855e+02 1.813998e+03
2025-03-16 83.103901 120.632428 181.028385 293.737293 522.684083 1.040959e+03 2.661724e+03
2025-03-23 77.226651 116.862016 184.790346 322.806803 639.851264 1.504949e+03 5.309386e+03
2025-03-30 69.341112 108.033237 177.385288 327.413555 706.482528 1.915553e+03 9.324280e+03
2025-04-06 64.003848 102.514786 174.584125 340.478361 802.997772 2.557913e+03 1.922312e+04
2025-04-13 57.737427 94.267227 164.726903 334.313755 843.173825 3.061523e+03 3.525346e+04
2025-04-20 55.753873 93.582534 169.841989 366.079051 1026.549611 4.671108e+03 1.434587e+05
2025-04-27 53.488610 91.961866 172.592286 393.026345 1220.602660 7.082305e+03 1.293426e+06
2025-05-04 50.989021 89.481620 172.908141 413.579383 1413.808414 1.059964e+04 3.621844e+09
2025-05-11 48.369811 86.380144 171.175081 427.638638 1597.833138 1.564392e+04 NaN
2025-05-18 45.560959 82.692382 167.796732 437.101480 1785.729869 2.367500e+04 NaN
2025-05-25 42.099142 77.205859 159.085687 425.991397 1849.854119 3.093011e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 39.016724 72.206764 150.816367 413.945086 1901.500189 4.023252e+04 NaN
2025-06-08 36.073444 67.205970 141.781757 396.376735 1900.610476 4.892460e+04 NaN
2025-06-15 35.735542 68.002069 148.150851 439.975223 2444.180669 1.426045e+05 NaN
2025-06-22 34.101494 65.634469 145.516189 446.937067 2707.248686 2.984240e+05 NaN
2025-06-29 32.995049 64.376497 145.785128 466.755901 3161.630218 1.081374e+06 NaN
2025-07-06 31.150080 61.176213 139.968578 457.390480 3280.407181 2.558569e+06 NaN
2025-07-13 30.948277 61.914460 145.872470 505.911780 4322.755453 3.379128e+13 NaN
2025-07-20 30.488349 61.964190 149.742053 547.572604 5534.425848 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 29.797535 61.356757 151.464062 579.645493 6838.554669 NaN NaN